What the 2024 Federal Elections Will Mean for the K-12 Market

The result of the presidential and congressional elections on Nov. 5 may have large implications for Ok-12 coverage and funding on the federal degree — and for firms working within the schooling market.

As presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump stand on reverse ends of the political spectrum on a lot of the essential faculty points which have emerged on the marketing campaign path.

And each chambers in Congress are up for grabs. Within the U.S. Home, the GOP controls 220 seats to Democrats’ 212 seats (with three vacancies), whereas within the Senate, Democrats have a slim majority.

Numerous massive ticket federal gadgets — from funding for key Ok-12 packages reminiscent of Title I and Title II to the way forward for the U.S. Division of Schooling — could possibly be decided by who’s elected in November.

“Each election issues rather a lot for the schooling system,” mentioned Reg Leichty, who advises Ok-12 teams on federal funds and coverage as a founding companion at Foresight Regulation + Coverage. “This one is especially consequential on the presidential degree, given a few of the very divisive rhetoric in regards to the public schooling system.”

The specter of cuts to federal funding for teaching programs — multibillion-dollar packages that faculty districts rely closely on for important providers — looms based mostly on the end result of the election.

Many schooling firms depend on faculty programs having the ability to faucet into these funding streams with a purpose to pay for services and products in curriculum, evaluation, PD, ed tech, social-emotional studying, and lots of different areas.

The results from the election additionally prolong past budgetary points to the likelihood that the federal authorities may turn into extra concerned in divisive political-culture debates which have roiled many faculty districts.

Regardless of the prevailing divisions, Leichty mentioned he’s considerably optimistic that lawmakers will put apart political variations and work collectively on education-related points, at the least in some areas.

EdWeek Market Transient spoke with Leichty about what schooling firms ought to count on from a Harris or Trump administration and shifting majorities in Congress, the prospect of bipartisanship on schooling matters, and the way this November’s election will form different areas of presidency essential to the schooling business.

This story is one in a sequence that may take a look at the affect of the November elections on the schooling sector.

How do Harris and Trump differ on spending on massive federal packages which are essential to varsities and schooling firms?

It’s secure to say {that a} Trump administration would possible considerably disinvest in public schooling — and we now have a way of what a Trump schooling funds seems to be like. For instance, the lately handed Home Republican funds for the division of ed, the place we noticed an enormous minimize to Title I, full elimination of ESEA Title II, and flat funding for Title IV.

Then again, a Harris administration is more likely to proceed to be strongly dedicated to offering assist for Title I for low-income communities, and in a few of the essential digital studying packages like Title IV that guarantee all college students have entry to the connectivity and linked gadgets and different helps they should study.

Would you count on a Trump administration to enact main modifications to the U.S. Division of Schooling?

Former President Trump himself has form of plainly mentioned that his focus in schooling will likely be on dismantling the division of ed. We all know he has expressed a want to essentially alter the federal function in Ok-12 schooling. I’d count on, as they did throughout the Trump administration 4 years in the past, a heavy emphasis on selling entry to personal schooling, a concentrate on charters and other forms of alternative mechanisms. We’ve seen what their priorities are by the final administration and extra lately out on the marketing campaign path.

And the way do you count on a Harris administration would method the division of schooling?

We’d possible see Vice President Harris champion lots of the similar forms of insurance policies that the Biden administration has targeted on the final 4 years. We’d see a continued dedication by a Harris group to inexpensive faculty entry and completion.

We noticed on the Democratic Conference a spotlight and want to emphasise making certain that college students have the employability abilities they have to be profitable. That features doubtlessly a concentrate on strengthening workforce packages, together with the federal apprenticeship packages that target abilities acquisition. And I do suppose, as we’ve heard on the marketing campaign path, there can be a basic dedication to public schooling, and the children which are served by the general public faculty system.

Do you suppose Trump would use his bully pulpit as president to stoke Ok-12 tradition wars over race and gender which have performed out in states and districts?

I do suppose that President Trump’s rhetoric has gone all in on putting schooling on the middle of the tradition wars. If he have been elected, it’s possible that he’ll proceed to concentrate on the themes that divide moderately than deliver individuals collectively as communities to enhance public schooling. [In 2020, then-President Trump signed an executive order that sought to ban the use of “divisive concepts” in federal contracting. Various of that term were used in many states in efforts to restrict lessons on race and gender.]

There’s additionally the query of how do members on either side of the aisle that need to transfer past a extra divisive debate about public schooling … come collectively to strengthen and higher serve the children in our communities that want essentially the most assist?

It’s in all probability going to stay an especially divided Congress, post-election. How possible is it that bipartisan dealmaking may happen on faculty points?

There are members on either side of the aisle who’re deeply dedicated to public schooling. They worth the general public faculties of their communities. Many, if not most of them, are graduates of public faculties, they usually see the worth of it.

Regardless of quite a lot of powerful, decisive conversations on the contrary what we’ve seen is that individuals who assist public schooling on either side of the aisle have come collectively during the last eight years. There’ve been some bumps within the highway, however we’ve seen robust continued assist for making certain that our public faculties stay type of anchor elements of our communities.

If Republicans win management of each chambers, what do you suppose will occur with Ok-12 funding?

A Republican-controlled Congress is more likely to champion flat, or much less spending in public schooling. I believe the proof of that’s discovered within the U.S. Home Labor, Well being and Human Providers, Schooling and Associated businesses fiscal yr 2025 invoice that the committee authorized just a few weeks in the past, which cuts about $14 billion from Title I. That might be unprecedented.

May these deep cuts to Title I really occur?

It’s essential to do not forget that except Republicans obtain a super-majority within the Senate, that’s except they’ve 60 votes, it’s going to proceed to be tough for these forms of excessive cuts to be adopted. And I believe there are additionally many Republicans within the Senate that disagree with the route that the Home Republicans have taken on schooling spending.

All that’s to say, whereas schooling spending would unlikely be on a trajectory to extend in an all Republican Congress subsequent yr, it’s in all probability most certainly to be flat funded, as we’ve seen in recent times simply due to the issue of transferring deep cuts by a system that may undoubtedly nonetheless have a considerable variety of Senate Democrats and in addition Senate Republicans who will not be pleasant to the sorts of deep cuts proposed by the Home Appropriations Committee this yr.

What do you count on to be a prime precedence for the following Home and Senate schooling committees?

The committees, actually in the event that they’re Republican or Democrat managed, will proceed to make progress on the substantive coverage problems with this Congress, which have been about modernizing the Workforce Innovation and Alternative Act, exploring updates to the Nationwide Apprenticeship Act, and seeking to discover a path towards increasing Pell Grant entry for shorter time period, prime quality packages.

That’s to say members on either side of the aisle are going to be on the lookout for bipartisan victories in what’s more likely to be a really carefully divided Congress. What we’ve discovered this yr and final yr is that there’s quite a lot of curiosity amongst Republicans and Democrats, and among the many Senate and Home, to attempt to replace the federal workforce packages. They’ve made quite a lot of progress … in direction of that aim.

On what different areas do you see prospects for compromise, and motion?

Considering from an ed-tech perspective, there’s some actually thrilling bipartisan provisions targeted on constructing out far more strong information infrastructure designed to advertise better transparency for college kids and employers within the workforce system. There’s some thrilling issues taking place, even in a tough type of political setting.

Are there different areas of Ok-12 that might turn into major points for the following Congress?

Proper after the election there’ll possible even be another points that will come up because of their prominence within the marketing campaign season. So there could possibly be early conversations about proficiency challenges that children have skilled put up pandemic, and the steps which are being taken to get all college students again on observe.

There could possibly be, within the Senate, an enormous concentrate on literacy because of rating member Cassidy’s [U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La.] curiosity and management in that area. I simply actually count on workforce to proceed to be a central focus of whichever get together is in energy.

Federal stimulus cash is expiring. To what diploma do you count on the following Congress to look at the extent to which these have been good investments?

We’ve already seen the Home Schooling and Workforce Committee maintain these forms of oversight hearings, which is a central a part of their function as a committee. That’s their job. It’s very doable that, for instance, if there’s a Republican majority within the Senate that we’d see some hearings about ESSER within the well being committee [U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions] as properly.

However I believe we’ve had that dialog principally already because of the Republican majority within the Home. So sure, there could possibly be some future hearings about ESSER, however I don’t count on it to be the dominant narrative of the following schooling committee’s work throughout the subsequent Congress.

Exterior of the White Home and Congress, what different methods may the federal election have an effect on ed tech or Ok-12?

There are additionally questions of who the following president will likely be which are linked to issues like judicial appointments. For instance, in the previous couple of weeks the Fifth Circuit Courtroom of Appeals, which is closely populated by appointees of President Trump, has dominated that the income system for the Common Service Fund, together with E-Price, is unconstitutional.

And we now have an actual query about the way forward for one of many —if not the largest — ed-tech program within the federal authorities, which is E-Price. So this isn’t simply in regards to the bully pulpit, and it’s not simply in regards to the composition of the Congress and the way forward for laws. It’s additionally in regards to the appointees of the president and the work they’re doing, and the appointment of judges which may have a dramatically completely different view in regards to the constitutional relationship of a few of these packages.

On that word, the president appoints the chair of the Federal Communications Fee, which simply confirmed a fifth member final yr after a protracted partisan impasse. How may this election have an effect on the FCC?

If Trump wins, it’s going to convert to a Republican majority they usually may need completely different views on issues like E-Price, Wi-Fi on buses, or E-Price assist for cell hotspots. There are coverage points {that a} Trump FCC may train that is likely to be completely different and even dramatically completely different when it comes to how the E-Price is used and what it’s used for and the way it’s funded.