U.S. Leading Indicator Index dips more than expected in July

The U.S. Main Indicator Index dropped -0.6% M/M to 100.4 in July to 100.4, steeper than the -0.3% anticipated and -0.2% M/M decline in June, in keeping with The Convention Board report on Monday.

“The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month foundation, however the six-month annual progress charge now not alerts recession forward,” mentioned Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior supervisor, Enterprise Cycle Indicators, at The Convention Board.

“In July, weak spot was widespread amongst non-financial parts,” she added. “A pointy deterioration in new orders, persistently weak shopper expectations of enterprise situations, and softer constructing permits and hours labored in manufacturing drove the decline, along with the still-negative yield unfold.”

Whereas the index now not signifies a recession, it does anticipate U.S. actual GDP progress to gradual as shoppers and companies minimize spending and investments. The Convention Board expects U.S. actual GDP progress of 0.6% in Q3 and 1% annualized in This fall.

The Coincident Financial Index was flat at 112.5 in July vs. 112.5 prior (revised from 112.6).

And the Lagging Financial Index, at 119.6, edged down from 119.7 in June (revised from 119.5).