The Chowder Rule | How To Calculate The Chowder Number

Up to date on July thirtieth, 2024 by Bob Ciura

The Chowder Rule is an heuristic technique to search out excessive whole return shares in your dividend progress portfolio.

A short definition of The Chowder Rule is beneath:

The Chowder Rule is a rule-based system used to establish dividend progress shares with robust whole return potential by combining dividend yield and dividend progress.

The Chowder Rule was invented and popularized by Looking for Alpha contributor Chowder. The rule will get its title from the Looking for Alpha contributor (not from soup).

The Chowder Quantity is derived from making use of The Chowder Rule. The Chowder Quantity is calculated as a inventory’s present dividend yield plus its 5-year dividend progress charge.

The Chowder Rule is utilized otherwise to completely different shares. The factors and guidelines are beneath:

Rule 1: If inventory has a dividend yield better than 3%, its Chowder Quantity should be better than 12%.

Rule 2: If a inventory has a dividend yield lower than 3%, its Chowder Quantity should be better than 15%.

Rule 3: If a inventory is a utility, its 5-year dividend progress charge plus its dividend yield should be better than 8%.

Which means what passes as a ‘good’ Chowder Quantity rating will depend on a inventory’s present dividend yield (if it’s over or underneath 3%) and the sector it’s in (if it’s a utility or not).

This text examines the methodology of the Chowder Rule. The article additionally lists all shares with 25+ years of rising dividends that go the Chowder Rule.

Desk Of Contents

Guidelines Primarily based On Clever Investing Ideas

The Chowder Rule combines 2 clever investing ideas:

Anticipated whole return investing is a technique the place traders search for companies with the very best anticipated compound annual progress charge. The anticipated compound annual progress charge is approximated as dividend yield plus anticipated progress on a per share foundation plus annualized valuation a number of modifications. In different phrases, whole return investing takes into consideration the one 3 sources of inventory market returns:

Dividends
Development on a per share foundation
Valuation a number of will increase

The ‘Margin of Security’ idea was popularized by Warren Buffett’s mentor (and worth investing pioneer) Benjamin Graham.

Benjamin Graham required a margin of security in his investments. If he thought the honest worth of a inventory was $100, he was not keen to pay $100 for it. Graham sometimes required a 33% margin of security. Within the $100 instance, Graham would solely pay ~$67 for the inventory.

Combining the margin of security precept with the shares of companies buying and selling beneath liquidation worth allowed Graham to compound his wealth at round 20% a 12 months for many years.

The Objective of The Chowder Rule

The purpose of the Chowder Rule is to create a long-term compound annual progress charge of over 8%.

The Chowder Rule applies each ‘Margin of Security’ and ‘Whole Return’ considering to perform this purpose.

For shares with a dividend yield over 3%, a 33% ‘margin of security’ is used. As an alternative of hoping all the things goes easily with a inventory with a projected CAGR of 8%, put money into shares with a projected CAGR of 12% and provides your self a 33% margin of security.

The margin of security is expanded for fast-growing low-yield dividend shares. If a inventory has a dividend yield beneath 3%, the required projected CAGR is expanded from 12% to fifteen%. This offers you a 47% margin of security. The instinct behind that is that fast-growing shares will seemingly have their progress sluggish at some future level, so a better margin of security is required.

Utility shares sometimes have excessive yields and sluggish progress charges. They’re extremely regulated and sometimes take pleasure in regional aggressive benefits from robust limitations to entry. Consequently, the margin of security on utility shares is eliminated utilizing the Chowder Rule. Utility shares want solely have an anticipated whole return of 8% to go the Chowder Rule

Word that Looking for Alpha writer Chowder recommends utilizing the Chowder Rule final.

Earlier than making use of the Chowder Rule you must discover prime quality companies with glorious managements worthy of long-term holding.

The Chowder Rule comes into play solely after you may have recognized a enterprise you’d like to purchase and maintain. The Chowder Rule is the ultimate step in figuring out whether or not or not the enterprise is priced to purchase.

Bettering The Chowder Rule

The Chowder Rule makes intuitive sense.

The one challenge that we’ve got with the Chowder Rule is how unreliable utilizing the 5 12 months dividend progress charge is for projecting progress.

The dividend progress charge is topic to modifications within the payout ratio. Take the next instance:

A inventory’s earnings-per-share fall from $10.00 to $5.00 in 5 years
The inventory raises its dividend from $1.00 per share to $3.00 per share in 5 years

Does the inventory actually have a incredible 20%+ progress charge? No; the underlying enterprise is probably going in decline. The dividend progress charge exhibits super progress, however this progress isn’t sustainable. It’s because the payout ratio has elevated from 10% to 60% in 5 years. That’s the place the illusory progress comes from.

Earnings-per-share progress is often preferable to dividend progress as an indicator of underlying enterprise progress on a per share foundation.

Earnings-per-share numbers are removed from foolproof. They’re reliant on revenue margins. Revenue margins are sometimes imply reverting over lengthy intervals of time and may unfairly skew (both up or down) an organization’s actual underlying enterprise progress.

We favor to make use of an inexpensive estimate of future progress that’s based mostly on historic earnings-per-share progress, administration’s expectations of progress going ahead, and our personal evaluation of future progress potential.

Estimating future progress does put human bias into the funding resolution. It additionally eliminates errors from accounting irregularities or one time earnings (or dividend) spikes or declines. The purpose in estimating future progress is to be affordable and cautious, to not be inflexible.

Shares With 25+ Years Of Dividend Development & The Chowder Rule

There are presently greater than 150 securities in The Positive Evaluation Analysis Database with 25+ years of consecutive dividend will increase.

You’ll be able to obtain a spreadsheet of ‘Dividend Champions‘ – securities with 25+ years of rising dividends – on the hyperlink beneath:

Having been in a position to improve dividends for 25+ years is an efficient rule-of-thumb to establish prime quality companies with shareholder pleasant managements. From there, we calculate The Chowder Quantity for all of those securities to search out which of them go The Chowder Rule.

We use our 5-year ahead progress on a per share foundation estimate as a proxy for The Chowder Rule’s 5-year dividend progress charge in our calculations. The securities that go The Chowder Rule are sorted by Chowder Quantity (from highest to lowest) and damaged down by class beneath.

Apparently, solely 17 securities with 25+ years of rising dividends go The Chowder Rule assessments. This exhibits how unique these guidelines are in at the moment’s market surroundings.

Every safety that passes The Chowder Rule has a hyperlink to the newest Positive Evaluation Analysis Database report on the corporate.

3%+ Yielding SecuritiesChowder Rule #1: Chowder Rating of 12%+

Stepan Co. (SCL)Dividend Yield: 3.5percentGrowth Estimate: 10.0percentChowder Quantity: 13.5%

Goal Company (TGT)Dividend Yield: 3.0percentGrowth Estimate: 10.0percentChowder Quantity: 13.0%

Arrow Monetary (AROW)Dividend Yield: 3.5percentGrowth Estimate: 10.0percentChowder Quantity: 13.5%

Enterprise Merchandise Companions LP (EPD)Dividend Yield: 6.9percentGrowth Estimate: 5.2percentChowder Quantity: 12.1%

Securities With Yields Beneath 3percentChowder Rule #2: Chowder Rating of 15%+

Stepan Co. (SCL)Dividend Yield: 1.7percentGrowth Estimate: 15.0percentChowder Quantity: 16.7%

UtilitiesChowder Rule #3: Chowder Rating of 8%+

SJW Group (SJW)Dividend Yield: 2.6percentGrowth Estimate: 8.0percentChowder Quantity: 10.6%

Fortis (FTS)Dividend Yield: 4.3percentGrowth Estimate: 5.5percentChowder Quantity: 9.8%

NextEra Vitality (NEE)Dividend Yield: 2.8percentGrowth Estimate: 7.0percentChowder Quantity: 9.8%

New Jersey Sources (NJR)Dividend Yield: 3.6percentGrowth Estimate: 5.0percentChowder Quantity: 8.6%

Entergy (ETR)Dividend Yield: 4.0percentGrowth Estimate: 5.0percentChowder Quantity: 9.0%

Canadian Utilities (CDUAF)Dividend Yield: 5.8percentGrowth Estimate: 4.0percentChowder Quantity: 9.8%

Atmos Vitality (ATO)Dividend Yield: 2.5percentGrowth Estimate: 7.0percentChowder Quantity: 9.5%

Artesian Sources (ARTNA)Dividend Yield: 3.0percentGrowth Estimate: 5.1percentChowder Quantity: 8.1%

Eversource Vitality (ES)Dividend Yield: 4.4percentGrowth Estimate: 6.0percentChowder Quantity: 10.4%

Important Utilities Inc. (WTRG)Dividend Yield: 3.0percentGrowth Estimate: 7.0percentChowder Quantity: 10.0%

Northwest Pure Holding Firm (NWN)Dividend Yield: 4.8percentGrowth Estimate: 7.5percentChowder Quantity: 12.3%

Black Hills Company (BKH)Dividend Yield: 4.5percentGrowth Estimate: 4.0percentChowder Quantity: 8.5%

Last Ideas & Additional Studying

4 shares go the primary model of the Chowder Rule, which calls for a 3% yield or higher. One inventory passes the second model, which is for these beneath a 3% yield.

Alternatively, we’ve got 12 utilities that meet the rule, which provides traders loads of alternative in relation to choosing a dividend inventory to purchase based mostly on the Chowder Rule.

The Chowder Rule is a useful gizmo to search out compelling dividend progress inventory concepts. Its guidelines are a comparatively excessive bar to go, as evidenced by how few securities made the lower in our evaluation on this article.

With that stated, the next lists include different doubtlessly prime quality dividend progress shares to think about: